BC's Presale Condo Market Is Slowing Down in 2026 — Here's What That Means for Surrey Buyers

By Uzair Muhammad, REALTOR® — Real Broker BC · Published

BC presale condo sales have dropped sharply in 2025-2026. Developers are pausing projects, offering more incentives, and competing harder for buyers. Here's what that actually means if you're looking to buy in Surrey right now — and why the timing might be in your favour.

PresaleProperties.com is the buyer-side representation practice of Uzair Muhammad (REALTOR, Real Broker BC), serving presale and new construction buyers across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley from 3211 152 St, Building C, Suite 402, Surrey BC V3Z 1H8 — (672) 258-1100.

The headlines have been hard to ignore.

"Metro Vancouver Presale Condo Sales Have Collapsed." "Surrey Developers Press Pause as Condo Slump Deepens." "BC Real Estate Crisis Deepens as Presales Collapse."

If you've been watching the BC real estate market, you know something has shifted. Presale absorption rates — the percentage of units sold at launch — have dropped dramatically across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. Several projects that launched in 2025 sat unsold. At least one high-profile luxury presale was cancelled outright in the third quarter of 2025.

So what's actually happening — and what does it mean if you're a buyer looking at presale condos in Surrey right now?

Let's get into the real picture.

What's Actually Causing the Slowdown?

This isn't one thing. It's several factors hitting at once.

Interest Rates and Borrowing Power The Bank of Canada's aggressive rate hikes in 2022–2024 hit presale demand hard. For buyers who signed presales in 2021 at sub-2% rates, qualifying at completion with rates near 5% was a rude awakening — borrowing power dropped by 20%+ for many buyers. While rates have since come down (Bank of Canada Prime rate now sits near 4.45%, with 5-year fixed rates in the 4.4–4.8% range), the damage to buyer confidence was real and lasting.

Investor Pullback Investor buyers — who drove a significant portion of presale demand in Surrey and Metro Vancouver through 2020–2022 — have largely stepped back. Rental yields have compressed, the new BC Home Flipping Tax changed the math on assignments, and uncertainty about where values go from here has made investors cautious.

Developer Costs Are Up Construction costs, labour, and financing haven't come down in line with demand. For developers, launching a presale that doesn't hit absorption targets means either cancelling the project or waiting for conditions to improve. Many have chosen to wait.

Buyer Confidence Took a Hit When buyers see headlines about developer cancellations — including a well-publicised Surrey case where a developer cancelled contracts and kept a buyer's $82,000 deposit — it shakes confidence in the whole category.

What's Actually Happening in Surrey Specifically?

Surrey has felt the slowdown acutely, but it's more nuanced than the headlines suggest.

Larger high-rise condo projects in Surrey City Centre (Whalley) have seen slower absorption. These are typically the higher-priced, investor-heavy projects that are most sensitive to rate and sentiment shifts.

But lower-rise and townhome projects — especially in family-oriented neighbourhoods like Fleetwood, Clayton, and Cloverdale — have held up considerably better. End-user buyers (people actually planning to live there) have been more resilient than investor buyers.

And here's the part the headlines aren't telling you.

Why This Is Actually Good News for Buyers

Downturns in buyer activity create something Surrey's presale market hasn't seen in years: leverage.

Developers Are Competing for You When a project needs to hit absorption targets to secure financing, developers need buyers. Right now, many are offering incentives they haven't touched in years:

If you went to a presale launch in 2021, you stood in line and paid the list price with zero negotiation. Right now? The conversation is different.

You Get Your Pick of Inventory In a hot market, the best units — corner suites, higher floors, south-facing exposures — sell in hours. In today's market, those units are still available. You can take your time, compare options, and choose what actually works for your needs and budget.

You're Buying at the Better End of the Cycle Experienced real estate investors understand this: you make money on real estate when you buy, not when you sell. Buying when sentiment is low and inventory is available is historically how you build wealth. The Surrey fundamentals — SkyTrain extension, population growth, housing demand — haven't changed. The sentiment has.

Rates Are Heading in the Right Direction Economists broadly expect the Bank of Canada to continue modest rate cuts through 2026. For presale buyers, this matters most at completion — 2–4 years out. Buying now with rates declining through your hold period is a very different position than buying in 2021 with rates about to explode upward.

What to Watch Out For

This isn't a one-sided story. There are real risks buyers need to navigate.

Developer Viability In a slow market, some developers are stretched. Before signing a presale contract, research the developer thoroughly. How many projects have they completed? Are they well-capitalised? Do they have a track record of closing even in difficult markets? A great deal from a developer who cancels is no deal at all.

Resale Value at Completion If you're buying as an investment, model your exit. What will comparable units be worth when your project completes in 2027 or 2028? Be conservative. Don't rely on appreciation to make your numbers work.

Stalled Timelines Slow presale environments lead to delayed starts. If a developer doesn't hit absorption targets, groundbreaking gets pushed. Your 2027 completion could become 2029. Make sure your financial plan accounts for a longer hold.

The Surrey Opportunity in Plain Language

Here's the honest take:

Surrey's long-term story hasn't changed. The Surrey-Langley SkyTrain extension is under active construction with 8 new stations expected online by late 2029. Surrey's population is 568,000+ and growing faster than any city in Metro Vancouver. The region is getting the infrastructure investment, the immigration, and the economic activity to support housing demand for decades.

The presale slowdown is a sentiment and rate story. The underlying demand story is intact.

For buyers who can handle a 2–4 year hold, buy with a proper deposit structure, work with an experienced presale realtor, and choose their developer carefully — right now is arguably the best time to buy a Surrey presale in five years.

The buyers who moved in 2019 when the market was quiet did very well by 2022. The buyers who waited until 2021 bought at the top.

The window to buy at cycle-low pricing in Surrey doesn't stay open forever.

What to Do Right Now

If you're considering a presale in Surrey in 2026, here's where to start:

  1. Talk to a presale specialist — someone who exclusively works with new construction and has VIP access to coming launches
  2. Get pre-approved — know your numbers at current rates so you can move quickly when the right project comes
  3. Research developers first — track record matters more in a slow market
  4. Get on VIP lists now — the best incentives are offered at soft launch, before public release
  5. Have a real estate lawyer review your contract before the 7-day rescission window closes

At Presale Properties, we track every active and upcoming launch in Surrey, and we have VIP access to projects before they hit the open market. If you want an honest read on what's worth buying right now — and what to avoid — book a free consultation.

Uzair Kaleem | Presale Properties — Surrey's #1 New Construction Condo Specialist

Founded by Uzair Muhammad, REALTOR® — Real Broker BC